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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would serve as assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not received the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. One proposal centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.